Bulk commodity exports to double by 2025, BREE says
Australian coal and iron ore exports are projected to more than double between 2012 and 2025, according to the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE).
BREE projected the range of export volumes in 2025 for Australian bulk commodities. It said thermal coal could rise to between 267mt and 383mt; metallurgical coal to between 260mt and 306mt and iron ore to between 885mt and 1082mt.
"The increase in Australia's bulk commodity exports over the next decade will be underpinned by strong demand in Asia and Australia's position as a world class exporter of iron ore, coal and LNG," said Professor Quentin Grafton, BREE's executive director and chief economist.
Future growth in coal, iron ore and LNG import demand will largely be underpinned by demand from Asia, including China and India.
Australian exports to these markets will face increased competition from countries such as Indonesia and Mongolia (coal), Brazil and West Africa (iron ore) and North America (LNG).
In the past decade, Australia's average market share of global trade in iron ore has been 34%, 18% for thermal coal and 58% for metallurgical coal.
Between 2010 and 2025, global thermal coal consumption is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.7%, metallurgical coal at 3.6% and iron ore at 4%.
World trade in these commodities over the period 2010 to 2025 is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 2.6% for thermal coal, 3.6% for metallurgical coal and 4.3% for iron ore.
BREE projects that port and rail infrastructure either in operation, under construction or planned will meet all bulk commodity export volume scenarios in 2025. It said infrastructure currently at the planning stage will provide for an increasing proportion of this.
BREE said the risk of Australia suffering insufficient export infrastructure is “manageable” for all commodities. The organisation assumes that current port utilisation rates can be maintained into the future.
To view the full report: http://www.bree.gov.au/documents/publications/resources/Export-Infrastructure-Report.pdf